There is very little to report on South Lake Tahoe foreclosures at the moment. Our foreclosure list has dwindled to a mere 10 properties. Only 7 of these are single-family residences. A 90-day foreclosure moratorium was passed in late February. Thus, we should see a big wave of foreclosures hit the market later this month and in June when the moratorium is no longer in effect.

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, please let me know at drew@southtahoehouses.com. As usual, I have more information on properties that will become foreclosures. However, I don’t feel at liberty to publish this information on the internet. If you are interested in those properties or the ones on this list, call me at (530) 545-1831.

There appears to be increased activity in all areas of the South Lake Tahoe real estate market. Foreclosure activity is definitely up. In 2008, there were 72 foreclosure sales. There have been 30 sales in 2009. This means we’re on pace for 120 foreclosure sales for this year, a 67% increase.

Foreclosure listings haven’t been able to keep up with buyer activity, however. There are only 16 single-family residences remaining on the foreclosure list. There are 59 single-family residences in escrow right now. Last month there were 39. Last year at this time there were 40. Our inventory is also down 5.7% from this time last year.

With the summer coming, interest rates at historic lows, and many homebuyer incentives, look for buyer activity to continue to increase. Future foreclosure lists may continue to be short lists!

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, click here. If you are interested in property on this list or any property in South Lake Tahoe, e-mail me at drew@southtahoehouses.com or call me at (530) 545-1831.

Best regards,
Drew Kondo

* The listing agent chose not to publish his or her listing to internet MLS searches.
** 1490 Seminole Dr. has been listed as a foreclosure since 8/21/2008. Days on Market was reset when a new agent took the listing.

We’ve seen some more activity in the South Lake Tahoe foreclosure market. Ten foreclosure properties went into escrow here within the last 13 days! There are 3 new foreclosure listings. The most interesting of these is at 2188 Pinewood Drive. It’s a huge 2,915 square foot home that was built in 2004. With a $435,000 list price, there’s an incredible bidding war going on for that property. Expect it to close well above list price.

It’s a busy Friday, so that’s all for now! I hope all you guys have a great weekend. If you want information on upcoming foreclosures, call me at (530) 545-1831.

There’s been a bit of a buzz in the South Lake Tahoe real estate community. Have we hit the bottom of the market? Possibly. Check out the median sale prices over the last seven months. It looks like we hit bottom in June and have been heading up in the following months. Additionally, the median list price of homes in escrow right now is $437,000. I’d expect that number to drop to about $412,000 because our sale-price-to-list-price ratio on the year is 94.23%. These numbers fall in line with the theory that we have hit the bottom of the market.

What do I think? I’m skeptical. I wish I remembered enough from my college stats class to back this up, but I don’t think enough homes have sold over a long enough period of time to claim that the market’s downward trend has come to a halt. I’ll be happy when we sell off some more of this oversupply of homes.

Speaking of, South Lake Tahoe’s supply of homes did dwindle some at the turn of the month when seventy listings expired. Only thirteen of those listings are back on the market. With less competition amongst listings, now isn’t a bad time to list.

Other notable activity in September occurred in the South Lake Tahoe foreclosure market. Of the 28 single-family residences that sold in September, 7 of them were foreclosures (25%). At the turn of the month, there were 12 foreclosures in escrow and 15 short sales in escrow. We’re seeing a lot of distressed sales. It’s no wonder that banks are folding on a daily basis.

Only 3 condos sold in the last month. However, some buyers were thinking about the upcoming ski season. An unusually high 6 condos went into escrow.

Four lots went into escrow last month and only two sold. It’s been very slow in the dirt market.

I’d love to hear your comments on any of this. I will update a few numbers as some agents haven’t been able to input their September sales in the MLS yet.

* For the sake of statistical integrity, my absorption rates are no longer considering sales for the last year. They are now calculated using sales for the last 90 days. For more information on why I decided on the change, e-mail me at drew@southtahoehouses.com.

As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, there’s been a theory proposed by a few South Lake Tahoe real estate agents, myself included, that home prices haven’t dropped as much as the statistics show. Perhaps there’s been more activity in the lower price bands. After all, it’s been much tougher to get a jumbo loan this last year. Additionally, the majority of foreclosure and other distressed sales have occurred in the lower price bands.

If there actually was more activity in the lower price bands, this could skew the all-important median sale price. I did a little data mining recently to see if in fact the theory was true.

What affects median sale price more than anything? Square footage. So I decided to break sales up into two categories – homes up to 2,000 square feet and homes above 2,000 square feet. If speculation was correct, we’d see an abnormally large amount of homes sold below 2,000 square feet in the last year. See the table below for the results I found. Percentages in parentheses represent the decline since the previous year.

As you can see, the results of my data mining actually show the opposite of what was speculated. If speculation was correct, there wouldn’t have been such a big drop in sales of homes up to 2,000 square feet. Moreover, the decline in median price would have been greater in higher priced homes. Instead the opposite occurred.

When it comes to South Lake Tahoe real estate, the median sale price continues to stand as one of the most accurate indicators of the state of the market.

There’s been lots and lots of activity in the foreclosure market over the last two weeks! Three homes from the last list went into escrow. There are 7 additions to the list so that we now have 22 foreclosures.

Probably the most interesting of these additions is 1731 Chippewa St. It is surrounded by vacant lots – some unbuildable, the rest likely to remain vacant. The home itself is huge and has a good floorplan. At $144 per square foot, it’s a great buy.

There were 6 price reductions amongst foreclosures in the last two weeks. 602 Wintoon Dr. is priced incredibly after a $20,000 price drop. It won’t be on the next foreclosure list. The homes on Janet, San Francisco, and Colusa are getting there too. I love the home at 967 Colusa. It’s a 2003 construction with a pave-stone driveway. Knotty-pine trim is used throughout. The entire upstairs ceiling is knotty-pine. It has work to do but could once again be an amazing home.

As usual, I have more information on properties that will become foreclosures. However, I don’t feel at liberty to publish this information on the internet. If you are interested in those properties or the ones on this list, call me at (530) 545-1831.

South Lake Tahoe real estate saw a lot of activity in the higher price bands during August. This pushed the median sales price for single family residences to $443,750 for the month and $399,000 for the last 90 days. We are still seeing a market decline, however. In the last two weeks there have been 71 price reductions amongst the market’s ~500 single-family residences. Our month’s supply of inventory in all price bands also reflects a buyer’s market (greater than 7 months).

Speaking of activity in higher price bands, I mentioned in a previous post that many question if the decline in median sale price has truly represented the decline in home values. Perhaps the median has moved so much because there has been more activity in the lower price bands. I’ve almost finished looking at numbers that will provide some enlightening answers. Look for a post about this in the next week.

As for now, I’ll finish this up with some foreclosure, condo, and lot numbers. There were 4 foreclosure sales in August, 3 homes and one condo. Thus, foreclosures only made up 10.5% of home and condo sales. They are not dominating the market as they are in other parts of the country. There were 4 condo sales in South Lake Tahoe for August, and 4 condo sales.

There are 14 foreclosure properties in South Lake Tahoe today. Four homes are new since I last published it two weeks ago. I’m surprised that only two foreclosures went into escrow since the last list. In that same time frame, 32 homes & condos went into escrow. That’s a lot for South Lake Tahoe, so it’s not like buyers have slowed down at all.

A couple properties stand out on this list. 602 Wintoon Dr. was reduced $30,000 a couple days ago and is an incredible buy. 3549 Morton Dr. was listed yesterday. It’s on 3/4 of an acre and backs to the South Upper Truckee River.

As usual, I have more information on properties that will become foreclosures. However, I don’t feel at liberty to publish this information on the internet. If you are interested in those properties or the ones on this list, call me at (530) 545-1831.

Here is the latest foreclosure list for South Lake Tahoe. There are 11 foreclosures on the market. They are all single-family residences (no condos or multiplexes).

Since the last foreclosure list, there have been a few interesting developments in the foreclosure market. A few properties were just listed. The only one I’m really excited about, though, is 2604 Knox Ave. It is located on a rare 1/4 acre lot in Sierra Tract. I think there could be a ton of value in that purchase. I’ll drive by it tomorrow and post a comment with my thoughts on it.

The only other foreclosure steal that is new to my list is 2508 Cold Creek Trl. It fell out of escrow recently. It’s located in Montgomery Estates, which is one of the most prestigious neighborhoods in town.

There were some significant price reductions on the foreclosure list. In the last two weeks 2587 Kubel Ave. went into escrow, fell out, and then saw a 10% price reduction down to $224,900. Wow! 3705 Montreal Rd. also experienced a huge reduction. It went from $339,900 to $309,000. Both these properties could be sold before my next list comes out in two weeks. (Montreal may remain because it needs a ton of work.) 1612 Choctaw was reduced $24,500 to $474,500.

I have more information on properties that will become foreclosures. However, I don’t feel at liberty to publish this information on the internet. If you are interested in those properties or the ones on this list, call me at (530) 545-1831.

Always trying to improve the real estate statistics I present to you, I’ve decided to mine for a new stat – median sale price for the last 90 days. I will present this statistic along with the median sale price for the last month. See the table below for the actual numbers. And for more articles on real estate statistics and South Lake Tahoe Real Estate, see The South Tahoe Realty Blog at www.SouthTahoeHouses.com.

What are the benefits of looking at the median sale price for the last 90 days? First, it helps minimize some of the incredible variance that occurs in a small market like South Lake Tahoe. A few high priced sales can throw off the median sale price for a single month here in South Lake. This isn’t so true when looking at sales over a 90-day span. Second, the 90-day statistic centers on a date 45 days in the past. The commonly accepted monthly median sale price centers on a date 15 days in the past. Thus, we get three times more homes, which minimizes variance, and only lose a month when it comes to keeping our stats current. If you are yet to be convinced, look at the table below. For any given month, the median price for the last 90 days, more often than not, produces a better reflection of market conditions than the median price for the month.

For those of you who’ve been following my statistical reports, you’ll notice that I’m no longer calculating median sale price over the last year (a.k.a. 12-month moving median). The statistic just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s good for looking at real estate history; and this is only true if the reader knows the data centers on a date 6 months in the past. Presenting it as current information on a month-to-month basis, however, just doesn’t make any sense.

As for now, we’re still seeing a lot of homes in escrow. We’ve had 60-70 homes in escrow at any given time in the last 2-3 months (the numbers I took from STAoR for the months previous to this one are low somehow.) And we’re finally seeing an increase in homes sold, but it still should be higher. Look at the numbers in 2005 when the market was at its peak. About 65% of escrows closed at that time. Right now we’re seeing about half close. I know a knowledgeable real estate professional who suggested that perhaps we have a bunch of really long escrows sitting out there. This would keep many of our escrows from closing. This isn’t the case, however. When I looked through South Lake Tahoe’s escrows a week ago, only 14 out of the 70 had been in escrow for more than 60 days. I think it’s just that a larger percentage of homes are falling out of escrow than we’ve seen in the past. With a tight lending industry, most buyers probably aren’t qualifying for loans. So if you’re a seller here in South Lake Tahoe, don’t be too upset about your home falling out of escrow. It’s happening to everybody.

I’ll do my best to bring you more statistics in the next week. I was only able to go back to the beginning of 2007 with the 90-day median sale price. I’d also like to give you some foreclosure, condo, and lot numbers. It’s just a very, very busy time for real estate here in South Lake Tahoe.

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate
The South Tahoe Realty Blog