Timing the Bottom.docx (81.26 kb)

laketahoehouses.wordpress.com

As of 12/12/09, skiing and riding in the Tahoe area has been excellent.

Since it's really just the start of our season, some resorts have more of a base than others.  Some have a few lifts and runs open, others have all runs and lifts running, or are scheduled to open by this coming weekend.   The groomers are like butter and off piste is improving with each additional storm.  I've already had 3days of untracked...in spots waste deep!! 

To see more posts like this and much more, go to www.jewelinthepines.wordpress.com

There is very little to report on South Lake Tahoe foreclosures at the moment. Our foreclosure list has dwindled to a mere 10 properties. Only 7 of these are single-family residences. A 90-day foreclosure moratorium was passed in late February. Thus, we should see a big wave of foreclosures hit the market later this month and in June when the moratorium is no longer in effect.

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, please let me know at drew@southtahoehouses.com. As usual, I have more information on properties that will become foreclosures. However, I don’t feel at liberty to publish this information on the internet. If you are interested in those properties or the ones on this list, call me at (530) 545-1831.

There appears to be increased activity in all areas of the South Lake Tahoe real estate market. Foreclosure activity is definitely up. In 2008, there were 72 foreclosure sales. There have been 30 sales in 2009. This means we’re on pace for 120 foreclosure sales for this year, a 67% increase.

Foreclosure listings haven’t been able to keep up with buyer activity, however. There are only 16 single-family residences remaining on the foreclosure list. There are 59 single-family residences in escrow right now. Last month there were 39. Last year at this time there were 40. Our inventory is also down 5.7% from this time last year.

With the summer coming, interest rates at historic lows, and many homebuyer incentives, look for buyer activity to continue to increase. Future foreclosure lists may continue to be short lists!

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, click here. If you are interested in property on this list or any property in South Lake Tahoe, e-mail me at drew@southtahoehouses.com or call me at (530) 545-1831.

Best regards,
Drew Kondo

* The listing agent chose not to publish his or her listing to internet MLS searches.
** 1490 Seminole Dr. has been listed as a foreclosure since 8/21/2008. Days on Market was reset when a new agent took the listing.

1) Prices decline!
The Lake Tahoe South Shore California market has experienced a continued decline in prices since May of 2006. The decline from the peak is about 18.5 % per the South Tahoe Assoc of Realtors (STAOR) (end of Feb stats) for sfd homes. This is paltry compared to the statewide average of reported price declines of 50% as per the CA Assoc. of Realtors (C.A.R.) (as of early Mar).

The price declines in the South Shore market place have lessened to a 8.4% decline this past month as compared to the previous month and is verging on a lessening of the decline trend. We look for any bright news.  The decline while not a steep as many other markets, is attributable to the toxic loans that have generated foreclosure san short sales, yes even in our resort market trend.
 
2) Sales Increase!
Finally a ray of bright news in this dismal economy, albeit a small up tick we have experienced an increase in sale year over year of 5.5% increase in homes sold (same geographic range of south shore California, STAR reporting area). Median home price is just under $400,000.00. The market below median drives the sales units, the moderate range market above $500,000.00 is maintaining its unit sold (year over year) but the high end " luxury" market (above $1M) has suffered a 50% decline in units sold , but has experienced only modest declines in price.
 
3) Time to buy? Pending sales are up dramatically
The Impact of low prices and low interest rates is bringing out the buyers. But to move your property today it must be priced at or below the competition in order to get the attention and the offer. Pending sales have been increasing (year over year) for the past 12 month cycle and has finally translated into an increase (modest) in sales.
Interestingly the stats indicate that while distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) make up a minority of the listing inventory, it dominates the pending and sold units of the past year.
 
4) Supply and Demand-
We have approx. 400 sfd units (inventory) on the market which has been tracking slightly less than previous periods (year over year). This is an indicator that the serious sellers are on the market and that the inventory is starting to move. However the absorption rate, units available "supply"  and units in escrow "demand”, is still high at about 10 months and 15 months for units on the market vs sold units in Feb. per STAR stats. As the distressed inventory decreases the prices will stop dropping.
 
5) When is the market correction going to end and the turn around begin?-
What are the factors that will create a balanced market (something we in the industry look forward to)?  Is it off in the foreseeable future and will it be affected by the number of buyers entering the market?
If the attraction of the low prices (we're back at early 2005 and late 2004 pricing at the time of this writing) continues to drive the market.
Polishing off my crystal ball ... I anticipate a market turn around this fall and here's why.
a) Supply and demand is driving the inventory increase in sales and I anticipate this will continue exponentially though summer, which is typically our peak months.
b) As buyers recognize the investment value as well as the intrinsic benefits of property owners, particularly in the Lake Tahoe area, the sales will increase, fueled by the fact that the,
c) Values are hovering below the cost of construction and,
d) The cost of homeownership rivals rent payments and rental roi, gross multipliers and cap rates make sense.
e) They ain't making any more...Thank you TRPA, buildable land is in scarcity and will continue to be so due to the environmental constraints. A goal everyone has here in Lake Tahoe.
 
6) Stimulus Plan- is it stimulating?
At the time of this writing, the flow of money is just entering the pipeline. Credit available to the banks who in turn will lend to consumers to remedy the sins of the sub-prime through mortgage mods and new purchase money, is critical to stopping the escalation of foreclosures and short sales. Hopefully the impact will be to keep homeowners in their homes and attract new homeowners into the home buying market. The key piece is of course creating homeowners with realistic payments and purchase prices.
The tax credit is also attractive, and many states have their own tax credits too.
For more information on this go to my web site at www.realtordeb.com and see the home page articles and links.
 
Look forward to hearing from you with any questions or comments.
Here's to a healthy economy and real estate market.
 
 
 
Best Wishes,
Deb Howard
NV/CA Broker Owner CRS, RSPS, EPRO
Deb Howard & Company
Lake Tahoe's Real Estate Resource
866-542-2912 toll free
530-542-8657 fax
deb@realtordeb.com
www.realtordeb.com
3599 Lake Tahoe Blvd. Ste A
South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

Here's the latest stats for the current period as compared with year over year stats.
 
1) We have seen 1 year of "year over year" increases in pending sales and
 
2) we are finally we are seeing the units solds category increase (year over year).
The prices have undeniably declined at approx 20-25% since the peak in May of 2006-
Will they go lower, perhaps some, probable. But we are near or at the bottom of this market cycle as demonstrated by the increases in pending and closed escrows.

3) Inventory has stayed relatively stable, another good sign of recovery as we have no new development to effect the supply and demand ratios. I won't go so far as to thank TRPA for their building restrictions, but at this juncture it is a good dynamic (certainly the environmental consideration is a good thing).
 
I'm hearing from investor/ buyers that they are looking to real estate to diversify their ( diminished albeit) financial portfolio and real estate is becoming once again the preferred vehicle; enjoyment of use, income and deductibility.
 
I would encourage investors and buyers to consider their long term life style investment, family enjoyment and I hope they will consider Lake Tahoe Rea Estate.
 

Best Wishes,

Deb Howard
Deb Howard & Company
Lake Tahoe's Real Estate Resource
866-542-2912 toll free
530-542-8657 fax
deb@realtordeb.com
www.realtordeb.com
3599 Lake Tahoe Blvd. Ste A
South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

 Hello Every one

It is a great time to come and take a look around and see some of the best deals we have seen sence 2003.  As for you adventure folks it is an incredable time to also come to tahoe. The mountain bike trails are in the best shape all season. Snow?? It will be here before we know it. As you may know New Zeland  had a great winter in my experince we tend to follow there winters.  

Come on up take a look around. Look at some homes and get outside have some fun. 

Call me for come great ares outside to check out when  your here.  

Thanks For Choosing DEB Howard & CO.

 Web site:   WWW.Realtordeb.com

Email me: Jason@realtordeb.com                                        

JASON SCHOONOVER    Buyer’s Specailist,  Realtor                             

3359 Lake Tahoe Blvd., Suite A

South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

Cell     530 545-2902

Office  530 542-2912

Fax      530 542-8657

Toll Free 866 542-2902

Feeling stressed out?  Tired of all the doom and gloom in the media?  I find it really important to find healthy ways to de-stress and stay positive. Here's an article about recreation and entertainment in South Lake Tahoe that I found on Skinet.com.  It has some good ideas to help let off some steam.  So get up on the ski slopes and get some fresh air.  After that catch a show, do some gambling, or grab a bite to eat.  See you out there! 

South Lake Tahoe, Calif./Nev– With its major casinos, South Lake Tahoe is considered a gambling town. But all prognostications for lots of snow make another big winter look like a sure bet. Last January, Mother Nature delivered record snowfall of 19 ft. to South Lake Tahoe, and for 2008-2009 Farmer’s Almanac predicts above average snowfall. Locals are preparing Pray for Snow Parties in mid-Nov. to coincide with such predictions. In fact, winter enthusiasts believe that if there was still snow on the cross of Mt. Tallac, one of Tahoe’s tallest peaks, on Fourth of July, it will be a good season. There was.

South Lake Tahoe is recognized as a premier winter vacation destination with the most snow in the U.S, average high temperatures 35-40 degrees and over 300 days of sunshine a year, which means plenty of sun in the winter. “One of the spellbinding aspects about our destination is winter storms hit hard and then the following days will be magnificent blue bird powder days with several feet of new snow,” said Carol Chaplin executive director of Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority. “In addition, snow removal agencies do a great job of clearing the roads, or you can let the experts drive via public transportation and free shuttle services, which allows our destination to rarely be hindered by new snowfall.”

WHAT’S NEW ON THE SLOPES: Heavenly Mountain Resort was recently named a “World Saver” by Condé Nast Traveler in the category of leadership in environmental protection and is ranked among OnTheSnow.com’s top ten “no-car needed” resorts.

The developments continue in year two of Heavenly’s ten-year master plan. Following the debut of Olympic Express and the Heavenly Flyer ZipRider last season, Heavenly will unveil three new gladed trails on the resort's California side that will include "islands" on groomed runs, giving skiers and riders the sensation of tree skiing without venturing off piste. Heavenly has also re-graded Skyline Trail, providing more convenient access to Nevada terrain from the California side of the mountain.

Heavenly will double its indoor seating at East Peak Lodge; offer 100 percent Certified Organic Starbucks coffee and Fair-Trade espresso; eliminate all artificial trans fats in its dining establishments; expand and remodel California Lodge’s rental shop; add six new, low-emission grooming machines to the country's largest fleet of Prinoth350 snow cats, expand snowmaking to cover Nevada’s Stagecoach run and install a magic carpet surface lift at the California ski school. On the high-tech side, Heavenly season passes will include "easy scan" RF technology to expedite access to the lifts. Info: 775-586-7000 or skiheavenly.com.

Kirkwood Mountain Resort will add two new lifts for the 2008-09 season to improve access to 700 acres and over 1,350 vertical feet of skiing and snowboarding in its legendary backside terrain as the first phase of its recently approved Mountain Master Development Plan. The Lookout Vista lift replaces the hike to the famed chutes of Thunder Saddle along with access to the snowfields and cliffbands of Sunnyside for those headed to the resort’s backside. The Covered Wagon lift gains entry to the highest point crossed on the historic Mormon Emigrant Trail along with pristine powder stashes on Fawn Ridge. The resort will install a beginner-friendly Wonder Carpet Lift at its Timber Creek Base Area to replace existing tows and lifts. Kirkwood will revamp its three terrain park layouts for progression and flow. The resort invested in snowcats/machinery specifically designed for terrain park applications. In addition to its terrain parks and halfpipe, Kirkwood will open a Skier/Boarder X Course under Chair 5. Info: 209-258-6000 or kirkwood.com.

Sierra-at-Tahoe Resort’s web site will provide guests a cutting-edge online experience with an interactive radar application of weather patterns over precise locations at Sierra Resort, differentiating between summit and base settings. Eager skiers and snowboarders can follow weather activity in real time as storms approach the mountain crests. iPhone and other smartphone users can access the mobile web site for live feeds of daily conditions, weather, news, events and more.

Complementing the progress of last season’s green initiatives with free preferred parking for hybrid vehicles, Sierra-at-Tahoe will further reduce green house gas emissions by encouraging no-idling cars; implementing carpooling resources at SierraAtTahoe.com to help guests connect and share rides; and by purchasing only 100 percent compostable disposable products for all restaurants. In fact, all plates, bowls, cups and flatware will be made from renewable sources such as sugar cane, potato starch and corn resin.

The 360° Smokehouse BBQ at the top of Grandview Express will cater to small, private groups up to 30-40 people this season providing incredible views of Lake Tahoe, and menu items such as pulled pork, tri-tip, brisket and fried green beans. Info: 530-659-7453 or SierraAtTahoe.com.

ENTERTAINMENT WITNER LINE-UP: 2009 marks the 50th anniversary of the South Shore Room at Harrah’s Lake Tahoe. The site for legendary performances like Sinatra, Streisand, Denver, Bennett and Sammy continues rocking with WAR, Oct. 4; Starship starring Mickey Thomas, Oct. 11; Mimi Chu & Joyce Lee, Oct. 25; The Smothers Brothers, Oct. 31 & Nov. 1; Blue Öyster Cult, Nov. 8; Jose Feliciano, Nov. 15; Los Lonely Boys, Nov. 22; Abbacadabra, Nov. 29; Air Supply, Dec. 6. Info: 800-HARRAHS or TotalRewardsTahoe.com.

“Let’s Live for Today” as The Grass Roots perform their classic ‘60s and ‘70s hits on Saturday, Nov. 15, in the Convention Center at The Horizon Casino Resort. Info: 775-588-6211 or horizoncasino.com.

Live music, local DJs, artists, entertainers, inspiring karaoke singers can be found throughout South Shore at venues such as Divided Sky, Rockwater, Rojo’s Tavern, Whiskey Dicks, Tudor Pub, Tahoe Underground and Valhalla Boathouse Theater. Info: bluelaketahoe.com and tahoeculture.com.

DINING AROUND TOWN: Edgewood Tahoe Restaurant provides lakeviews with snow covering the beach and golf course. Prix Fixe Menus with wine pairings for each course are available for $55, or $40 without wine. Choose from Seared Halibut topped with lobster and prawns; Veal Medallions with crab, brie, and piquant demi-glaze; and Muscovy Duck Breast with onions, mushrooms and Swiss chard ragout for the main entree. Info: edgewoodtahoe.com.

Beach Hut Deli, a grassroots deli, which originated in Folsom, Calif., is popular in the Sacramento and Reno areas and now comes to South Shore. Even though you can’t surf in winter at Tahoe, the Surfin' Bird™, Beach Bikini™, Pipeline Pup™ and the Shark Bite™ are a few of the sandwich creations. Info: beachhutdeli.com.

Wasabi is the newest addition to the variety of seafood/sushi options available in South Shore. Info: 530-542-4451. La Baguette Tahoe Artisan Bakery provides a selection of breakfast, lunch and café selections and breads baked fresh daily. The ham and cheese filled croissants and fresh fruit crepes are among locals favorites. Info: tahoebaguette.com/goodthings. The Ski Run Center will further enhance the destination’s ongoing regeneration with complementary architecture coinciding with redevelopment. The final expansion is scheduled to open this winter and will include a third location for the a local’s favorite breakfast joint Red Hut Restaurant, Altitude Salon and SPA, Alpaca Products, Kentucky Fried Chicken, and Goodfellas Pizza.

LODGING PACKAGES: At Harrah’s and Harveys Lake Tahoe, winter ski packages start at $79 per night, including room and lift ticket. Info: 800-HARRAHS or TotalRewardsTahoe.com. MontBleu Resort Casino & Spa winter ski packages start at $199 per night, including room and two lift tickets to choice of local resorts. Info: 800-648-3353 or montbleuresort.com.

The Ridge Tahoe, located steps from Heavenly Mountain Resort’s Stagecoach Lodge on the Nevada side overlooking the Lake Tahoe and the Carson Valley, celebrates its 25th anniversary with ski packages starting at $199 per night, including deluxe room, two lift tickets, microzone facial and resort amenities: health club, indoor sports complex, Jacuzzis and shuttle service to Stateline corridor. Info: 775-588-3553 or ridge-tahoe.com.

Embassy Suites Lake Tahoe Hotel & Ski Resort is next door to the Heavenly Mountain Resort, shops, entertainment and casinos, and now provides BusinessLink™ Centers with free WiFi and high speed internet connection. There’s on-site ski lift ticket sales, equipment rentals, complimentary ski check, print boarding passes and flight check-in, new menu at ECHO Restaurant, complimentary cooked-to-order breakfast and nightly manager’s reception. Info: 877-497-8483 embassytahoe.com .

Historic Camp Richardson Resort is an outdoor enthusiast’s mecca, with snowshoeing access to some of the most popular trails and beaches in South Shore. The resort’s lakeside cabins sleep two to eight people, and features gas fireplace and basic kitchens (including microwave, coffeemaker and toaster). Its on-site restaurant, Beacon Bar & Grill, is a favorite among locals and is open year round. Info: 800-544-1800 or camprichardson.com.

Lakeland Village Beach & Mountain Resort, Tahoe's lakeside condominium resort can accommodate couples, families or groups with choices ranging from one to five bedrooms. This winter, bathroom and kitchen remodels, new carpets and furniture will be complete throughout its 16 different style unit configurations. There’s a deluxe continental daily breakfast menu; complimentary private shuttle hours from 8 a.m. - midnight; an on-line booking system that makes it secure and easy to book a stay. Ski & ride packages and specials offers will be announced throughout the season. Info: lakeland-village.com.

Tahoe Lakeshore Lodge & Spa has a Girlfriend Getaway package that includes one hour massages each, bottle of wine, and $60 dinner voucher to nearby restaurant Blue Water Bistro. One of the only lakefront properties amenities include private beach, heated pool, on-site spa and convenient location. Info: 800-448-4577 or ahoelakeshorelodge.com.

On the lake is Zephyr Cove Resort with accommodations including cabins and cottages. The resort is home to Zephyr Cove Marina, snowmobile tours, boat cruises and restaurant. Thru Dec. 15, 2008 guests can book two nights and receive a $25 fuel card or three nights and receive a $50 fuel card upon check out; reservations must be made by Sept. 30, 2008. Info: 800-23-TAHOE or zephyrcove.com. For information about South Lake Tahoe, call the Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority, 1-800-AT-TAHOE (1-800-288-2463) or visit BlueLakeTahoe.com

Hope this article was helpful.  For general information about Lake Tahoe, and/or Lake Tahoe Real Estate, feel free to contact me directly, Michelle Keck, at (530) 416-1955, or michelle@realtordeb.com.

 A positive attitude is contagious in all areas of your life and career. Don't be your own worst enemy. Stop "blaming" people, lenders, the government, and even the market for your problems or lack of success. BLAME reflects "victimhood," and being a "victim" creates conflict, struggle, depression, scarcity and "more" fear in your life.   FOCUS ON THE SOLUTION, not on the problem. If you are not getting the results you need, focus on what must be done DIFFERENTLY in order to succeed.  Remember the old saying that you can't keep doing the same thing, and expect different results.  CHANGE your focus.  If you focus on the problem, youʼll only get more problems back. Focus on your A game all the time-focus on the solution and youʼll find the answer.